UN Weather Agency Forecasts Moderate to Strong El Niño That Could Drive Up Global Temperatures

The United Nations weather agency forecast on Tuesday a moderate or possibly strong El Niño that could drive up global temperatures and increase the risk of extreme weather over the coming months. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which typically lasts between nine and twelve months. 

The WMO predicted above-average temperatures in most parts of the world from June to August and said it is likely that El Niño will continue until November. The agency also said it remains uncertain how strong El Niño will be as models differ on its severity, but officials warned of the need to be prepared.

WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo stated that the world needs to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The weather pattern is known to disrupt regional climates, potentially bringing warmer temperatures across the globe while increasing rainfall in the southern parts of South America, the United States, parts of the Horn of Africa, and central Asia. El Niño can also cause drought in Australia, Central America, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia, and spur hurricane formation in the central and eastern Pacific.

Saulo noted that the last El Niño, which meteorologists described as strong from 2023 to 2024, contributed to making 2024 the hottest year on record. Other risks associated with extreme heat include a wider spread of diseases borne by vectors such as mosquitoes and ticks, as well as reduced food and water supplies. Communities that were already struggling will be pushed farther beyond their limits, she warned. For consumers already facing inflation due to the Iran war, food prices may rise further because of El Niño.

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United Nations Secretary General António Guterres said the forecast is a reminder of the need for a shift away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy, stating that the world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is, as El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.