The Society of Energy Editors (SEE) has projected significant developments for Nigeria’s energy sector in the first quarter of 2025, driven by President Bola Tinubu’s proposed N49.7 trillion naira budget. This includes a focus on boosting crude oil production to 2.06 million barrels per day, which is expected to reduce inflation from 34.6% to 15%. The SEE highlighted that the success of the Dangote Refinery in reducing fuel imports and easing petroleum subsidies will be crucial, with steady crude oil supply from the NNPC Ltd to the refinery being key.
In gas production, the SEE expects growth during the first quarter, fuelled by the government’s “Decade of Gas” initiative. The country’s ambitions to increase gas reserves to 210 trillion cubic feet in 2025 and 220 trillion cubic feet by 2030 are anticipated to drive the sector forward. Gas exports through Nigeria LNG Limited are also projected to remain steady in early 2025.
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However, challenges remain in power generation and transmission. Despite efforts to expand infrastructure, the SEE warned that power transmission remains weak, with 12 grid collapses recorded in 2024. The lack of effective mitigation measures is expected to result in further disruptions in 2025. Additionally, labour concerns in the petroleum and electricity sectors will need to be addressed to maintain stability and avoid disruptions.
The SEE acknowledged the challenges in meeting the government’s inflation reduction and exchange rate improvement goals in 2025, given the current market realities. Moreover, addressing insecurity in the Niger Delta through the activities of the Niger Delta Development Commission is seen as essential to ensuring the long-term stability of the energy sector.
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