The World Bank has downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth projection to an average of 4.1 percent for 2026, down from its October 2025 forecast of 4.4 percent. In its April 2026 Africa Economic Update titled ‘Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa,’ released on Wednesday, the global lender also reduced the 2027 projection to 4.2 percent and put the 2028 forecast at 4.3 percent.
The bank said the revised growth forecast is driven by more stable macroeconomic conditions and a gradual recovery in investment. It noted that the services sector, particularly information technology, finance and real estate, will remain the primary engine of growth, while agriculture and industry are expected to expand more slowly due to structural constraints.
The World Bank also projected that inflation will decline from 23 percent in 2025 to 14.9 percent in 2026, and further ease to 10.7 percent by 2028, reflecting the lagged impact of policy tightening and improving supply conditions. The institution said that although poverty remains elevated, it is expected to decline gradually as inflation eases, albeit more slowly due to higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict.
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The bank added that rising oil prices could support fiscal and external balances, partly offset by capital flow volatility amid global uncertainty. However, it warned that business sentiment and reform momentum may be dampened by commodity price volatility, tighter global financial conditions, security concerns, and policy uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections.
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