The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged the federal government to maintain a neutral fiscal stance in 2026, warning that poverty and food insecurity could worsen despite improvements in Nigeria’s macroeconomic stability. This is according to the IMF 2026 Article IV consultation report released on Tuesday.
The Washington-based lender said strong reforms over the past three years have yielded improved macroeconomic outcomes and built resilience, but conditions for many Nigerians remain difficult, with poverty reaching 63 percent based on the national poverty line and an estimated 27 million Nigerians facing food insecurity in the fall of 2025.
The IMF projected Nigeria’s economy to grow by 4.1 percent in 2026 compared with an estimated 4 percent in 2025, but warned that inflationary pressures remain elevated after consumer prices rose to 15.4 percent in March. After being on a declining trend for over a year, inflation nudged up as the jump in international fuel and food prices started hitting Nigeria.
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The fund advised the government to resist election-related spending pressures and maintain its commitment not to reintroduce fuel subsidies, and said fiscal policy in 2026 should prioritise macroeconomic stability while protecting growth-enhancing investments and social spending.
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