A new study has revealed that the official Palestinian death toll in Gaza’s war with Israel likely undercounted fatalities by 41% in the first nine months of the conflict. Published in ‘The Lancet’ journal on Thursday, the peer-reviewed study was conducted by researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Yale University, and other institutions.
The study used a statistical method known as capture-recapture analysis to estimate the death toll from Israel’s air and ground campaign in Gaza between October 2023 and June 2024. According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, the death toll up to June 30, 2024, was reported at 37,877. However, the study, which incorporated data from the ministry, an online survey, and social media obituaries, estimates that the actual number of deaths ranged from 55,298 to 78,525, with a best estimate of 64,260.
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This would mean the Ministry’s official tally was underreported by 41%. The study also found that 59.1% of those killed were women, children, and people over the age of 65. The toll represented 2.9% of Gaza’s pre-war population, equating to about one in every 35 residents. The report only accounts for deaths from traumatic injuries and does not include casualties from lack of healthcare, food shortages, or those still missing under the rubble.
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