IMF Lowers Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.1 Percent

The International Monetary Fund has revised Nigeria’s economic growth outlook for 2026 downward, cutting the projection from 4.4 percent to 4.1 percent. The Fund attributed the adjustment to rising global pressures and domestic economic challenges affecting key sectors of the economy.

The IMF disclosed the revised figures during the launch of its April 2026 Global Financial Stability Report. Deputy Chief of the Macro Financial Division in the IMF Research Department, Deniz Igan, said global shocks, including ongoing conflict affecting commodity markets, have weakened growth across regions, particularly for oil-importing countries.

For Nigeria, the Fund said higher fuel, fertiliser, and shipping costs are weighing on non-oil activities, even as elevated oil prices provide some support. It also noted that inflation remains a concern, with Nigeria recording about 15.06 percent year on year in February 2026, while interest rates remain high as the Central Bank continues efforts to stabilise prices.

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The IMF further projected a broader slowdown in global growth, with emerging economies and Sub-Saharan Africa also expected to experience reduced momentum. It warned that rising energy costs, supply chain disruptions and declining foreign aid are contributing to tighter economic conditions across developing countries, including Nigeria.